When Betting Odds Defy Logic

Have you ever sat down and compared the odds across a range of betting types and been left pondering the logic? If your answer is yes then you’re not the only one. There are times when football betting odds seem to be totally inconsistent with one another and with the event you are betting on.

Take tonight’s Europa Cup games. There is a distinct possibility that we will have an all England final – Liverpool against Fulham. In fact, Fulham have defied all odds to reach this stage of the competition. Many expected them to fail the first elimination stage, making it to the semi-finals was thought improbable – yet here we are, going into a semi-final with Fulham not only favourites to win the match, but going in with a decided advantage.

Therein lies the first piece of crazy logic. Fulham are 6/5 favourites to win tonight with Hamburg out to 5/2. Following the draw in Hamburg last week, Fulham only needs to win by a single goal to advance to the finals. It’s a home game so Fulham should be favourite. If we look at outright betting in the Europa Cup, Fulham are considered to be the outsiders at 7/2. Hamburg are 3/1 to win. It seems illogical that Fulham will go into this game favourites to win yet Hamburg are more favoured to win the Cup.

Tonight’s second game is also a little illogical. Liverpool face Atletico needing to win by two goals following the 0-1 loss last week. Liverpool at home are hard to beat but can they win by two goals? They are 8/13 to win with Atletico 5/1. In outright betting, Liverpool are favourites to take the Cup at 9/4 with Atletico second pick at 11/4.

Only one of these two can proceed to the finals and with Liverpool favourites tonight and in outright betting, those who support Atletico appear to be receiving very poor odds. The same can be said for Hamburg. They have the bigger mountain to cross yet are more favoured to win than Fulham

For the record, I expect an all-England final and, with betting odds at 7/2, I think Fulham are good value to go on and win the Cup. The final will be played in Hamburg where Fulham played so well last week. Liverpool are not as good on the road and Fulham have little to lose having made it thus far. We are in for some entertaining football tonight and the final should be even better.

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