Having watched Samantha Stosur crush Serena Williams in the women’s final of the US Open, one would think that anything could happen in the men’s final. However, punters have short memories and forget that Stosur did have the wood on Williams last year, and that Stosur was in great form leading into the French Open final before nerves got to her. We tipped Stosur as an outsider to win and she has finally delivered for us. Now it’s on to the men’s final, and once again, we are set for a classic final between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

This will be a replay of last season’s final, which Nadal won with ease in the finish. Djokovic is going into this final after completing a five set arm wrestle against Roger Federer – once again we had to witness Federer race to a two sets to love lead, get to match point, only to then falter and allow his opponent in. Djokovic has had a suspect shoulder this summer, and that five setter will not have done him any favours.

In US Open Betting, bookmakers have Djokovic well into the red at 4/6 with Nadal a shade inside 6/4. This match will be a lot closer than those odds suggest, in fact, you could almost call it even money for each player. With that in mind, Djokovic appears to be poor value while Nadal is good value.

Picking the winner is the name of the game, and if this goes to five sets, then Nadal may just have the edge. These two have met five times thus far this season with Djokovic walking away the winner on each occasion. Nadal has had injury problems himself, but he seems to be fully fit, so that wont be an excuse this year. He knows how to win, is good value at 6/4, and he’s our tip to finally lower Djokovic’s colours.