It seems to be the year of world cups for a variety of sports. Next Up on the sporting calendar is the Rugby World Cup to be held in New Zealand. That tournament is only six weeks away so much of the focus will be on the three southern hemisphere powerhouses – New Zealand, South Africa, and Australia. With the Super 15 competition now completed, players are focused heavily on their national teams. The annual Tri-Nations tournament gets underway this weekend, and it could be a good guide to the outcome of the World Cup.
New Zealand dominate the betting in both competitions with bookmakers quoting them at 1/2 to win the Tri-Nations. In the World Cup, their odds are slightly better at 4/5. It’s interesting to see Australia second in Tri-Nations betting, especially since they were beaten so resoundingly by Samoa last weekend. Of course, the Queensland Reds defeated the Crusaders in the Super 15 tournament, and both sides included many international representatives. Still, at 9/2 for the World Cup and 3/1 for the Tri-Nations, I am not sure they are good value.
South Africa are unwanted in Tri-Nations betting with their odds slipping out to 10/1. They are dangerous on home ground, they just seem to struggle on the road. Their acid test comes tomorrow in the opening Tri-Nations game when they travel to Sydney to take on Australia. If the Aussies haven’t recovered from last weekend’s loss, then they could be easy pickings this weekend, and a good start for South Africa. If they do get that good start, then they could surprise, and those odds of 10/1 a very attractive bet.
In the World Cup, South Africa are 7/1 ahead of England at 10/1 and France at 20/1. New Zealand should win the Tri-Nations, however, those odds of 1/2 are not attractive. If you’re going to have a bet, put a little on South Africa – those 10/1 odds are good and should they win tomorrow they will halve to at least 5/1 while the Aussies will blow out. In the World Cup, it’s early days yet, but I’d be putting a little on England – the Kiwis are starting to look vulnerable so I think we may just be able to edge them.