As we predicted on Friday, Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel has claimed pole position in today’s Hungarian Grand Prix and alongside him will be teammate Mark Webber. Even more predictable are the odds that online bookmakers are offering for a Vettel victory. In my mind, they are certainly not value bets.

Vettel is unpredictable when it comes to race day. His starts are poor and on a circuit like the Hungoreng, you just cannot afford to miss the start. Having a return of only one win from six poles gives testimony to his poor starts. Webber can be quick off the start and if he leads the pack into that first turn, it could well be a procession behind him from there.

Online bookmakers have Vettel at 3/5 with Webber at 3/1. The value bets could well be in the second row with Ferrari’s Alonso to start behind Vettel and Massa to start behind Webber. Alonso is 7/1 while Massa is out to 10/1. Splitting them is Hamilton at 8/1 – he will start from position five on the grid.

This will be an interesting run to the first turn. I can see Vettel fractionally missing the start as usual while Webber will get a jump. Alonso will try to go down the inside of Vettel and Massa will try to go down the outside of Webber. Meanwhile, Hamilton will most likely try to split those two and track Webber. Five cars into that first turn can only mean one thing – mayhem. The winner could well be Webber and Hamilton as the other three have to give ground under brakes.

Whoever comes out of that first turn unscathed only has to drive safely to win.  The Hungoreng is one of the hardest tracks to overtake on so expect a procession with pit stops, accidents, and mechanical issues determining the race. Red Bull are well drilled in the pits and fairly reliable – accidents, well that’s a different question. I like Webber’s quote – ‘Once we get past the first turn, it’s more about start awake for seventy laps than actually trying to out drive your rivals”. Let’s hope they all stay away.

Our predictions for today’s race. Webber, Hamilton and Massa to figure in the finish. But then, team orders could see Webber giving way to Vettel and Massa giving way to Alonso. At least Hamilton won’t have to give way to anyone! Let’s be brave and back Hamilton to win.