Lewis Hamilton heads the betting odds and will start a short priced favourite in today’s Formula 1 Grand Prix in Belgium despite losing pole position to Championship Leader Mark Webber. This should be an interesting race given there was less than a tenth of a second between Webber and Hamilton. Before placing a bet, you should also factor in that the front row has only won 14 of the last 42 races at Spa, a statistic that I’m sure will provide encouragement to those starting further back.
The best run of the practice sessions was that of Renault’s Robert Kubica who will start from three on the grid. He didn’t get the best of conditions with light rain falling on parts of the circuit. Webber’s team mate Sebastian Vettel will start from four with Jensen Button and Felipe Massa rounding out the top six.
In pre-race betting, Hamilton leads the way at 15/8 from Webber at 5/2, Vettel at 11/2 and Alonso at 8/1. Alonso had a bad practice session and will start from well back on the grid so I’m a little puzzled at his odds. In Drivers Championship betting, Vettel still leads the way at 9/4 from Webber at 5/2 and Hamilton at 9/2. It’s an interesting market given that Webber leads the point tally at present and is favourite to win this race. If Webber does win today it will make catching him difficult – if he wins.
Hamilton looks to be the best placed to win today. Webber and Vettel can both be tardy at the start while Hamilton is normally very quick off the mark. Kubica has also shown a lot of speed early on – this could push Webber and Vettel back to third and fourth. Fortunately, Spa is a true race track with long straights suited to overtaking moves.
Our tip – Hamilton is good value at a shade under 2/1 in betting odds, however, Kubica at 10/1 or better looks to be the real value. You cannot dismiss Webber or Vettel – they have won 12 of the 13 poles this season and finished in the points in almost every race. If Webber gets a clean start then it’ll be catch-me-if-you-can – otherwise, for our money, Kubica looks to be the best value.