If you follow golf on a regular basis, then you will notice one statistic that stands out yet is rarely mentioned. Defending champions rarely defend their titles successfully. Sure, players of the caliber of Tiger Woods can achieve it, but lower down the order it is rare.

This week, Rory McIlroy defends his Wells Fargo Championship title, and while his form has been reasonable, history alone would suggest you leave him out of your betting calculations. Another statistic that is interesting is that in golf betting, early favourites also rarely win. That puts a line through Phil Mickelson as well since bookmakers have posted him as the early 12/1 favourite.

With McIlroy the second favourite at 14/1, we have to move to the third line of betting to find potential winners. Martin Kaymer is 17/1 and does have some good form coming into this event. From there you are looking at the outside chances headed by Nick Watney and Dustin Johnson, both around the 22/1 mark.

The field for this event is wide open this year so betting on some of the more generalized outcomes could be profitable. You can bet on players finishing in the top 10, top 20, or by nationality, with bets available on the top US player, the top Australian, and the top European. You can also bet on daily tournament leaders, or, with odds at 12/1 or better, backing your selection each way – these bets pay for the first five.

Out tip: Dustin Johnson has been thereabouts over the last couple of months and 22/1 is well worth an each way bet. While there’s no doubting the quality of McIlroy and Mickelson, history suggests we look elsewhere and our pencil stops when we get to Johnson.