If Lewis Hamilton has another melt down during today’s Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, I’d almost understand it. There have been at least a dozen occasions this season where McLaren drivers have put in superb performances during qualifying only to see Sebastian Vettel come out and beat them in the dying seconds. So far this weekend, Hamilton’s car has been the fastest, however, a quick change of tires and Vettel comes out and nails that perfect qualifying lap – fast enough to place him on pole and to force the McLarens of Hamilton and Jensen Button to two and three on the grid.

Racing will be a little different, and this season has proven one thing – while pole does have a great psychological benefit, it’s how drivers handle themselves in the races that really counts. Hamilton will most likely lead into turn one; he has that good burst of speed. From there, it’s a large game of chess with pit stops, tires, and driver temperament determining the winner.

Bookmakers have Vettel a firm favourite at 8/11 with Hamilton second pick at 7/2. Button is at 5/1 ahead of Alonso and Webber at 7/1. This could also become a grudge match between Hamilton and Vettel. For the latter, the season is over – he has wrapped up the drivers and construction championship; so winning, while nice, is not dominating his thinking, self-preservation will be.

We’re tipping Hamilton to finally claim another win from Button. Don’t be surprised to see either Alonso or Webber claiming that third position on the dais with Vettel either knocked out of the race or taking it home easy. It’s hard betting on any sport when the season is almost over, the major results are in. Formula 1 betting is also difficult because drivers, while trying to do their best, will not put their lives on the line for what is essentially dead cause.