The Tour de France has entered an interesting period with defending champion Alberto Contador still just over three minutes from the leader. Cadel Evans has been promoted to outright favouritism although only just ahead of Contador. Evans is in second place one minute eighteen seconds behind the leader and so far has shaken off every attempt by Contador to cut the time difference between the two.

It seems punters haven’t given up hope on Contador despite the time gap backing him back to 6/4. Evans has also been keenly backed in Tour de France betting and is into 11/8 while the Schleck brothers have been notable drifters, especially Frank Schleck who is now out to 25/1 despite being only four seconds away from Evans. Andy Schleck is the only other rider given a chance at this stage with bookmakers pricing him at 15/2.

The next two mountain stages will determine Contador’s future in the event. If he cannot cut any time in the gap between himself and Evans, then he may find things tough in the concluding stages. The team behind Evans are playing their strategy perfectly at the minute with Evans either finishing ahead of Contador, or at least in the same pack.

Contador has tried to break away on several occasions now only to find a chasing group that includes Evans and the Schleck brothers catching him towards the end of the stage. These break aways will be costing him in terms of stamina while also deflating him since he’s not gaining any momentum from them. If Contador can get back a minute or more over these next two stages, then he’s almost odds on to go on and win – he’s a master of the final day. At 6/4, he’s good value given his determination and history in this event. We’re sticking with Evans to win, but watching Contador closely – we could be in for a very close finish this year.