It’s not often a home side runs onto the field as the underdogs in a sporting final, but that’s going to be the situation when the Reds take on the Crusaders in the rugby Super 15 final early tomorrow morning. There is one thing we do know, whoever walks off the ground as winners will generally be acknowledged as the best rugby club in the world. This year’s final is between the best two teams in the competition by a long way, and we’re in for a very interesting spectacle.

Online bookmakers have the Crusaders at around the 4/6 mark in betting. They are being quoted as short as 3/5 while the Reds are as short as 6/5, generally 6/4 and 11/8. These teams are a lot closer than those odds suggest and this has lead to a wide range of differences in betting odds between bookmakers.

If you’re prepared to lay one of these teams, then you may find there are better odds through a betting exchange. You can lay the Crusaders at 13/20 (you get 20/13 if they lose) and the Reds at 7/5. The best odds on offer from major bookmakers are:

• Paddy Power – the Reds at 2.60 (8/5)
• Blue Square – the Crusaders at 1.67 (4/6)
• Bet Fair – the Draw at 30.0 (29/1)

This will be a tough contest and while the Crusaders have performed very well this year, including a win over the Reds, we feel the Reds home ground advantage. With a packed stadium of 50,000 plus, fans may just turn the advantage to the Reds’ favour. The Crusaders have had to travel over 100,000 kilometers this season, including a trip from New Zealand to England and back, and that travel is starting to have its effect. It will be close, but we’re tipping the Reds by five.