There is an old adage in punting circles that suggests that if you follow the money you can rarely go wrong. It’s an interesting adage and works on the principle that if a flood of money comes from nowhere for a particular outcome, it must be educated money coming from the ‘inside’. You will often see big market moves on betting exchanges. Punters will suddenly appear and snap up every bet available on an event, often at very good prices. Betting exchanges can often be a little slow in reacting to events – and knowledgeable punters rely on this.

We have a situation at present where Everton manager David Moyes has been ‘backed for a stack’ to take over as Aston Villa manager. Overnight his odds where slashed from 40/1 to 11/4 and favourite. Now that’s a huge move in any market – more so when it comes to Premier League managers. While traditional bookmakers were quick to react, some punters on the betting exchanges were rather slow and an hour after seeing the odds slashed they were still offering 40/1 – and didn’t the smart punters move in and snap up those bets.

I won’t go into whether or not Moyes will make the move; rather, there is the principle here of following the money. Is it a smart move? If Moyes is selected to take over at Villa then those punters that backed him will be pretty happy. Of course, if he isn’t, they will rue having been swayed by the money.

Money does talk and when there is a big move there is obviously something behind it. Smart punters will look at what’s behind the move rather than the move itself. Often a stray comment, in this case, Moyes, Everton or Villa letting slip that there was serious interest in the move, can cause a flurry of betting. That doesn’t mean the outcome is set in stone.

Rather than following the money and betting blindly, you are much better off analyzing every situation on its merits. If it does warrant a bet then hit the betting exchanges – you will be surprised at how slow they can sometimes be at reacting to changes in circumstances – a situation you can use to increase your profits.