The Ashes have been a strange series to date with the first test a draw, England crushing Australia in the second test, then Australia returning the pleasure and crushing England in the third. As we move on to the fourth tests, bookmakers are at a loss to know who to make favourite. The betting odds on both teams have been up and down and going into the famous Boxing Day test; for some reason Australia have been elected outright favourites.

Going into this match, the possibilities seem to favor England. For Australia to win back the Ashes, they must defeat England. There are two tests left and even if Australia win the fourth test, England will still be well in with the Sydney test to be played in the New Year. For England, the can play to draw both tests and they will return home winners.

Of course, playing to draw is not easy, but they can start by playing to win, and if things go a little pear shaped they can then play to draw. For England, one win and the series is theirs – and they have two chances to secure that win. A draw is no good for Australia – they need to win at least one of these last two tests and to draw the other. They certainly have to stop England from winning.

Online bookmakers have Australia at 6/4 to win the Boxing Day test just ahead of England at 15/8. In outright betting, Australia are 13/8 to win the series with England now out to just under 2/1. My spies in Australia tell me the weather is going to play an important role in these last two tests. The whole eastern seaboard has been flooded with record 1 in 50 and 1 in 100 year floods recorded. More importantly, the long term forecast for the east coast is more rain, and plenty of it.

With that in mind, I suggest betting on a draw in the Melbourne test, which starts on Sunday. You can get good betting odds on the draw at present, some as high as 13/5. A drawn series is around the same odds while predicting a 1-1 draw is at 6/1 – you can back 2-2 at 9/2. I think the series win end in two draws at this stage, unless the rain backs off, so backing 1-1 series at 6/1 looks to be great value.